How the IRA's Price Controls Could Backfire on Patients
For millions of Americans, health insurance offers a false promise. Despite paying premiums, deductibles, and copays, many still find themselves struggling to afford essential healthcare. In fact, a recent survey found that a staggering 43% of adults with employer-sponsored insurance—often considered the gold standard of coverage—find healthcare difficult to afford. This affordability crisis is poised to worsen, as the latest National Health Expenditure projections from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) reveal a troubling trend: while government spending on prescription drugs is projected to decrease, patient out-of-pocket costs are expected to rise. The projections forecast an 8.9% increase in hospital expenditures, coupled with a 1.4% decrease in retail prescription drug spending. This shift, driven in part by the Inflation Reduction Act's (IRA) price control provisions, threatens to undermine the law's intended goal of affordable healthcare and exacerbate existing health inequities. While the IRA aims to lower drug costs, its focus on price controls, rather than comprehensive patient protection mechanisms, is creating misaligned incentives that could backfire on the very people it aims to help.
The IRA's Price Controls: A Double-Edged Sword
The IRA's approach to lowering drug costs centers on empowering the government to directly negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies. This change tackles a provision in the Medicare Part D program known as the "non-interference" clause, which previously prevented the government from directly negotiating drug prices. As a Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) issue brief explains, "The Part D non-interference clause has been a longstanding target for some policymakers because it has limited the ability of the federal government to leverage lower prices, particularly for high-priced drugs without competitors." While this "non-interference" clause has long been a target for reform, the IRA's implementation creates a ripple effect that extends beyond simply lowering the sticker price of medications. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that these drug pricing provisions will reduce the federal deficit by $237 billion over 10 years, suggesting a significant shift in spending away from the government. However, this shift comes at a cost. The IRA's emphasis on price controls, rather than comprehensive patient protection mechanisms, disrupts existing rebate structures that have been crucial in expanding access to medications, particularly for low-income patients and those with chronic conditions.
Programs like 340B and Medicaid rely on a system of manufacturer rebates to make medications more affordable. In essence, drug companies provide rebates to these programs in exchange for having their drugs included on formularies and made available to a large pool of patients. These rebates help offset the cost of medications, allowing safety-net providers to stretch their limited resources and serve more patients. However, the IRA's price controls could disrupt this delicate balance. By directly negotiating lower prices with manufacturers, the government might inadvertently reduce the incentive for companies to offer substantial rebates to programs like 340B and Medicaid. This could lead to higher costs for these programs and ultimately limit access to medications for vulnerable populations.
This means that programs like 340B and Medicaid, which rely on manufacturer rebates to offset costs and provide affordable medications to vulnerable populations, could be significantly undermined by the IRA's price control measures.
Further complicating the issue is the potential for pharmaceutical companies to adapt to the IRA's price controls by strategically setting higher launch prices for new drugs. This tactic allows them to recoup potential losses from negotiated prices in the future, effectively shifting the cost burden onto other payers, including patients. The CBO projects that this trend of higher launch prices would disproportionately impact Medicaid spending, placing a greater strain on a program already facing significant enrollment fluctuations and budgetary pressures. The KFF brief warns that, "Drug manufacturers may respond to the inflation rebates by increasing launch prices for drugs that come to market in the future." This means that while the IRA might appear to lower drug costs in the short term, it could inadvertently fuel a long-term trend of rising prices for new medications, ultimately impacting patient affordability and access to innovative therapies.
Hospitals: Benefiting from the System While Patients Pay the Price
The CMS projections forecast an alarming 8.9% increase in hospital expenditures, raising questions about the drivers of this unsustainable growth. A closer look reveals a troubling connection between this trend and the 340B Drug Pricing Program, a federal initiative designed to help safety-net hospitals provide affordable medications to low-income patients. The CBO's analysis of 340B spending reveals an explosive 19% average annual growth from 2010 to 2021, significantly outpacing overall healthcare spending growth. This dramatic increase is largely attributed to hospitals, particularly those specializing in oncology, which are increasingly purchasing high-priced specialty drugs through the program. As the CBO presentation states, "340B facilities benefit from the program because the difference between the acquisition cost and the amount they are paid (often called the 'spread') is larger for drugs acquired through the 340B program." This suggests that hospitals are capitalizing on the 340B program's discounts to acquire expensive medications, potentially driving up their overall spending. But are these savings being passed on to patients? Evidence suggests otherwise.
This suspicion of hospitals leveraging the 340B program for profit is further reinforced by a UC Berkeley School of Public Health study which found that hospitals are charging insurers exorbitant markups for infused specialty drugs, many of which are likely acquired through 340B. The study reveals that hospitals eligible for 340B discounts charge insurers a staggering 300% more for these drugs than their acquisition costs, effectively pocketing a substantial profit margin. This practice raises serious concerns about whether the 340B program, designed to help vulnerable patients access affordable medications, is instead being exploited by hospitals to boost their bottom line. As Christopher Whaley, a co-author of the UC Berkeley study, aptly points out, "It is ironic that some hospitals earn more from administering drugs than do drug firms for developing and manufacturing those drugs. At least drug firms invest part of their revenues in innovation; hospitals invest nothing." This highlights a perverse incentive structure where hospitals benefit financially from a program intended to help patients, while those same patients are often left facing inflated prices for essential medications and crippling medical debt.
The Affordability Crisis: A Broken Promise for Patients
This concerning trend of rising healthcare costs and shifting burdens is not limited to those reliant on safety-net programs. The Commonwealth Fund's 2023 Health Care Affordability Survey paints a bleak picture of the widespread affordability crisis facing Americans across all insurance types. The survey found that 43% of adults with employer coverage find healthcare difficult to afford, shattering the illusion that employer-sponsored insurance guarantees financial protection. These findings challenge the fundamental assumption that health insurance in the United States equates to affordable access to care. As the survey report states, "While having health insurance is always better than not having it, the survey findings challenge the implicit assumption that health insurance in the United States buys affordable access to care." This sentiment is echoed by millions of Americans who, despite having insurance, are forced to make difficult choices between their health and their financial well-being.
Even the IRA's lauded out-of-pocket (OOP) cap on Part D drug costs, while offering some relief, fails to address the root causes of this affordability crisis. An analysis by Avalere reveals that even with the cap in place, a significant number of Medicare beneficiaries will continue to face high healthcare costs, particularly those with lower incomes or specific health conditions. The analysis projects that 182,000 beneficiaries will spend over 10% of their income on Part D drug costs in 2025, despite the OOP cap. This sobering statistic underscores the limitations of focusing solely on OOP costs without addressing the underlying drivers of high drug prices and healthcare spending. As the Avalere analysis cautions, "High OOP costs are expected to result in many enrollees still facing affordability challenges in 2025." The findings from both the Avalere analysis and the Commonwealth Fund survey highlight a critical gap in the IRA's approach: it fails to adequately protect the most vulnerable patients from the financial burden of healthcare.
A Call for Patient-Centered Solutions
The CMS projections, alongside independent analyses of the pharmaceutical market and patient affordability, paint a clear picture: the current trajectory of US healthcare spending is unsustainable and inequitable. The IRA's price control provisions, while well-intentioned, risk exacerbating the affordability crisis by disrupting existing rebate structures, incentivizing higher launch prices for new drugs, and shifting costs onto patients. This shift is further compounded by unchecked hospital spending, particularly on high-priced specialty medications acquired through the 340B program. The result is a system where hospitals and pharmaceutical companies benefit, while patients—especially those with lower incomes or chronic conditions—are left struggling to afford essential care.
To be sure, the IRA includes provisions aimed at directly helping patients, such as the out-of-pocket cap on Part D drug costs and the expansion of subsidies for marketplace plans. These are positive steps towards easing the financial burden of healthcare for many Americans. However, the law's broader focus on price controls, without sufficient attention to patient protection mechanisms and the potential for unintended consequences, threatens to undermine these gains and create new challenges for those who rely on safety-net programs like 340B and Medicaid.
It's time for a fundamental shift in our approach to healthcare reform. Policymakers must move beyond a narrow focus on price controls and embrace a patient-centered approach that prioritizes affordability, access, and equity. This requires a multi-pronged strategy that includes:
Reassessing the IRA's reliance on price controls: Instead of simply dictating prices, policymakers should explore alternative approaches that strengthen patient protections, preserve rebate structures that support broader access, and address the potential for cost-shifting onto patients.
Tackling hospital pricing practices: Increased transparency and accountability in hospital pricing, particularly for inpatient medications, is necessary to ensure that safety-net programs like 340B are truly benefiting patients and not being exploited for profit.
Investing in alternative care models: Promoting value-based care and investing in primary and preventive care can reduce reliance on expensive hospital stays, improve health outcomes, and make healthcare more affordable for everyone.
The promise of affordable, accessible healthcare for all Americans remains unfulfilled. We must demand a healthcare system that puts patients first, not profits. Only then can we ensure that everyone has the opportunity to live a healthy and fulfilling life, regardless of their income or health status.