Healthcare in the Lame Duck
Lawmakers have returned to Washington for what many observers predict will be a subdued lame duck session. With former President Donald Trump set to return to the White House in January 2025 and Republicans poised to control both chambers of Congress in the new session, the current Democratic-led Congress faces tough decisions about which healthcare priorities can realistically advance before the year ends. Given these shifting dynamics and a continuing resolution set to expire on December 20th, many healthcare stakeholders are closely watching to see if a handful of critical policies—ranging from Medicare telehealth extensions to community health center funding—will receive even short-term relief.
Multiple programs tied to patient access and affordability are slated to expire on December 31, 2024. These include expanded Medicare telehealth flexibilities, community health center (CHC) funding, and measures preventing Medicaid Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) payment reductions. Efforts to stabilize Medicare physician payments, address pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) practices, and implement site-neutral payment reforms are also on the table. However, the political uncertainty, combined with constrained legislative days and an incoming administration that may set different healthcare priorities, create a complex landscape for deciding which items are addressed before the new year.
The Broader Political Context
The upcoming change in leadership is already influencing legislative calculations. Republicans, who will soon have unified control in 2025, may choose to defer major reforms or costly extensions until they can shape policy more extensively under the incoming Trump Administration. Analysts suggest that lawmakers will likely focus on minimal, must-pass measures to keep essential programs afloat while leaving more sweeping changes to the next Congress.
Several sources point to a “lamer-than-usual” lame duck session, with meaningful healthcare legislation potentially limited to urgent deadlines. The December 20th government funding cutoff provides a possible vehicle for limited healthcare fixes. Short-term extensions—buying mere months, rather than years—are a likely reality. During this time, people living with chronic conditions, those receiving services at safety-net providers, and people living in rural areas risk seeing uncertainty in care continuity if Congress cannot secure even interim solutions.
The incoming administration’s planned appointments to health agencies and global health leadership changes could realign federal priorities. While the previous administration’s approach emphasized a strong response to public health emergencies, the incoming leadership has signaled greater skepticism toward traditional vaccine policies and may focus less on infectious disease prevention, shifting attention toward other areas of healthcare. As a result, the current Congress may feel pressure to secure patient protections now, anticipating policy moves in 2025 that could reduce certain resources or alter public health strategies.
Must-Pass Healthcare Extensions: Preserving Patient Access Before 2025
Medicare Telehealth Flexibilities
One of the most urgent healthcare priorities involves extending Medicare telehealth flexibilities set to expire on December 31st. Initially expanded during the COVID-19 public health emergency, these provisions have allowed Medicare beneficiaries—including those in rural and underserved communities—to receive certain types of care without the geographic and site restrictions that once applied. The expansion has played a significant role in maintaining continuity of care, especially for behavioral health and chronic disease management services. A House Energy & Commerce Committee proposal would extend these provisions for two years, enabling policymakers to gather more data on telehealth’s cost and quality impact.
A permanent expansion faces a cost barrier. While telehealth enjoys bipartisan support, the price tag remains a challenge to achieving a long-term fix. Thus, a short-term extension appears the most likely outcome. If Congress allows the telehealth provisions to lapse, people who have integrated virtual visits into their healthcare routines—particularly for managing conditions such as HIV—might lose access to services they have come to rely on. This would create new hurdles for maintaining adherence to treatment regimens and managing ongoing care.
Medicare Physician Payment Stabilization
Another pressing issue involves Medicare physician payment rates. Under the current trajectory, doctors face a 2.83% pay cut in 2025—a continuation of multiple consecutive years of reimbursement reductions. Physician groups and bipartisan coalitions in Congress support a Medicare payment stabilization bill that would offset these reductions. Yet cost considerations and the search for budgetary offsets loom large.
Some policymakers view site-neutral payment reforms—discussed later—as a potential “pay-for” to fund these physician payment patches. The prospect of linking physician payment relief with spending cuts elsewhere may shape what Congress accomplishes now. Without a temporary fix, physicians in rural and lower-resource areas might limit the number of Medicare beneficiaries they see, potentially shrinking access to care just as winter months and other public health challenges approach.
Community Health Centers and Safety-Net Providers
CHCs, serving roughly 31 million people, face potential disruptions if their funding authorization expires at year’s end. According to George Washington University research, CHCs often operate on thin margins and rely heavily on federal support. Any gap in funding could mean reduced primary care services, delayed hiring or retention of medical staff, and less capacity to serve people who rely on these centers as their primary healthcare access point.
Medicaid DSH payments, which help hospitals serving people with lower incomes and those living in poverty, also face cuts. Without legislative action, an $8 billion reduction in DSH payments could take effect. Advocacy groups and hospital associations warn that this could erode crucial parts of the healthcare safety net, limiting services at facilities that care for populations disproportionately affected by chronic conditions and economic instability.
The lame duck session provides a narrow window to secure short-term extensions, preserving CHC and Medicaid DSH programs into early 2025. Lawmakers must balance competing priorities, including the need for cost offsets, making it uncertain whether robust, multi-year reauthorizations are possible. With Republicans waiting to implement their policy vision next year, the likely outcome may be modest stopgaps rather than a long-term solution.
Uncertainty for Other Key Programs: Ryan White and PEPFAR
Beyond the well-known year-end deadlines, advocates are also paying attention to larger federal programs that were previously reauthorized but now continue largely through appropriations. The Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program and the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) have historically enjoyed bipartisan support, delivering life-saving care, treatment, and prevention services for people living with HIV in the U.S. and abroad. However, as the next Congress and Administration look to reduce spending, longstanding programs that rely on continued federal investment but lack recent formal reauthorization could come under scrutiny.
Advocates fear that with a new majority eager to trim budgets and revisit healthcare spending priorities, both Ryan White and PEPFAR could face more critical examination. While no immediate action on these programs is expected in the lame duck session, their future stability may depend on how the incoming leadership chooses to address them in the months ahead. This uncertainty raises concerns in public health communities that rely on these programs to maintain progress in HIV prevention, treatment retention, and global health collaborations.
PBM Reform and Drug Pricing: A Fleeting Opportunity?
Pharmacy Benefit Managers have drawn increasing scrutiny from Congress for pricing practices that, according to some analyses, drive up medication costs and limit access to necessary prescriptions. There has been a rare display of bipartisan interest in addressing PBM transparency. The House-passed Lower Costs, More Transparency Act—referenced by Mercer—offers a framework for imposing new reporting requirements on PBMs and prohibiting certain practices like spread pricing in Medicaid.
Recent Federal Trade Commission (FTC) actions against the largest PBMs underscore these concerns. The FTC’s administrative complaint alleges that PBM rebating structures inflate medication costs, impairing access to more affordable alternatives. Policymakers, patient advocates, and public health officials have pointed out that PBM practices may particularly affect people living with HIV and other chronic conditions, who depend on stable access to medications. Restrictions like mandatory mail-order pharmacy rules can disrupt continuity of care, especially for those who require regular medication management.
Still, significant PBM reforms may not pass during the lame duck session. Republicans may prefer to tackle drug pricing and PBM oversight under their upcoming majority, potentially shaping legislation more to their liking. If any PBM-related measures pass now, they will likely serve as incremental changes or as offsets for other healthcare priorities rather than representing the comprehensive reform that some lawmakers and patient advocates seek.
Site-Neutral Payment Reforms: A Budgetary Lever
One of the most closely watched and potentially transformative policy changes up for discussion involves site-neutral payment reforms. Current Medicare regulations often allow higher reimbursements for services delivered at off-campus hospital outpatient departments compared to physician offices or ambulatory surgical centers. Hospitals justify these higher rates based on overhead and regulatory requirements, but policymakers, backed by advisors like the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC), have increasingly called for aligning payments across settings to reduce unnecessary spending.
According to Modern Healthcare reporting, robust site-neutral legislation could save over $100 billion over ten years. This makes the policy attractive as a funding mechanism—lawmakers can use those savings to pay for other priorities like extending telehealth, stabilizing Medicare physician payments, or preserving safety-net funding.
In previous Congresses, only modest site-neutral measures advanced. However, the political environment has changed. Analysts note that with a unified Republican government in 2025, policymakers may be more inclined to pass significant site-neutral reforms to secure long-term savings. During the lame duck session, a narrow measure included in the bipartisan Lower Costs, More Transparency Act—requiring site-neutral payments for certain drug administration services—could move forward as a pay-for. This smaller step might pave the way for broader reforms next year.
Hospitals, supported by the American Hospital Association, strongly oppose site-neutral policies, arguing these cuts would limit their ability to provide comprehensive services. Some advocates worry that reducing hospital outpatient department payments could disproportionately affect rural and underserved areas, threatening access to care if hospitals respond by consolidating or reducing less profitable services. Congress must weigh these concerns against the promise of substantial cost savings. Whether any notable site-neutral measures pass now or wait until next year remains uncertain.
The Upcoming Administration: Implications for Public Health Priorities
By early 2025, incoming administration appointees will shape federal healthcare priorities. As PBS NewsHour reports, the Administration’s picks signal possible skepticism toward established vaccine policies and a shift in public health approach, potentially reducing the emphasis on infectious disease prevention that guided previous eras. Meanwhile, experts warn that changes could weaken U.S. influence on global health initiatives.
This shifting focus could impact ongoing campaigns to address HIV and other chronic or communicable conditions. Without consistent federal direction and robust support, gains made under established programs may not be sustained. Advocates hope that at least some lame duck extensions can preserve the foundation of existing programs—like telehealth and CHCs—helping insulate vulnerable communities from policy swings that may come with new leadership.
Programs like Ryan White and PEPFAR, which have maintained strong bipartisan support in the past, could face new scrutiny in an environment where budget discipline and re-examining unreauthorized programs take center stage, potentially embroiling these critical pillars of HIV care and prevention in broader spending debates.
Navigating Short-Term Extensions and Long-Term Implications
Analysts predict a restrained legislative approach during the lame duck, with lawmakers likely settling for short-term solutions to avert immediate disruptions rather than enacting comprehensive reforms. This approach may feel unsatisfying to those seeking lasting certainty, but it can prevent sudden gaps in coverage and services while buying time to reassess priorities in 2025.
For example, a brief funding extension for CHCs or a short-term continuation of telehealth flexibilities could prevent abrupt care disruptions. Telehealth has already proven critical for expanding access to behavioral health services, and federal agencies have now taken further steps to preserve this access. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently extended telemedicine flexibilities for prescribing Schedule II-V controlled substances through the end of 2025. This marks the third extension of pandemic-era policies that allow practitioners to prescribe controlled medications—such as suboxone (used in opioid use disorder treatment)—via telemedicine without an in-person evaluation. Retaining these flexibilities, even if temporary, helps sustain harm reduction efforts and essential treatment access for those managing substance use disorders.
A modest Medicare physician payment patch could also preserve provider participation while deeper structural reforms are debated. On the revenue side, modest site-neutral tweaks may generate savings to fund these stopgaps without forcing lawmakers to finalize wide-ranging changes immediately.
Meanwhile, Democrats have floated extending Affordable Care Act subsidies in a potential year-end health deal that also includes telehealth extensions and incremental improvements in physician reimbursements. Such proposals face uncertainty as Republicans prepare to take full control in 2025, but even short-term deals could maintain coverage gains and service expansions that benefit people managing chronic conditions and those relying on affordable insurance options.
Given the incoming administration’s focus on spending and efficiency, it may be prudent for stakeholders to identify areas where reducing waste, redundancy, or abuse is possible—particularly within large, long-standing programs. Offering proactive solutions aligned with fiscal priorities, while demonstrating that essential services remain intact, could help preserve support for programs like Ryan White. This approach allows advocates to show policymakers that sustained funding can go hand-in-hand with accountability and cost-effectiveness, paving the way for more secure, long-term access to critical healthcare services.
Actions for Advocates and Public Health Officials
Engage Legislators Before December 20th:
With deadlines looming, advocates can communicate the importance of even short-term extensions for telehealth, CHC funding, and Medicare physician payment stabilization. Stressing the immediate impact of allowing these programs to expire can help secure stopgap measures.
Highlight Evidence and Outcomes:
Data-driven arguments can persuade legislators that certain policies merit continued investment. For example, demonstrating that telehealth has improved access in rural areas or that CHCs reduce costly emergency department visits can make a compelling case for sustained support.
Prepare for 2025 Debates:
The new Congress will likely reassess programs ranging from telehealth expansions to broader HIV initiatives like Ryan White and PEPFAR. Advocates should cultivate coalitions and gather patient stories now, ensuring they can respond effectively to future proposals that may challenge established healthcare priorities. By proactively preparing data and first-person accounts, stakeholders can better influence upcoming debates.
Monitor Agency Leadership and Policy Shifts:
Staying informed about new federal health agency leaders and their public statements helps anticipate changes in priorities. Understanding where the Administration might diverge from past practice can help advocates and providers design strategies to maintain access and care quality—even if federal emphasis shifts away from certain public health initiatives.
Conclusion
December 2024 places the U.S. healthcare landscape at a turning point. The lame duck session unfolds under a cloud of political transition, with an incoming administration and unified Republican control set to reshape policy debates. Lawmakers face a stacked agenda of expiring programs and urgent healthcare needs but may opt only for minimal extensions that maintain the status quo for now.
Decisions made in these final weeks of 2024—from temporary telehealth fixes to short-term CHC funding—will determine how seamlessly care continues into the new year. As Congress weighs sites of service, physician reimbursements, PBM practices, and the future of critical programs like Ryan White and PEPFAR, advocates must remain engaged. The approaching shift in power and priorities adds urgency to even the smallest policy wins now, as they may offer a critical foundation to protect patient access and maintain progress on significant public health initiatives in a potentially more challenging political climate.
Partisan Battles Put Public Health Programs in Jeopardy
Federal support for public health programs stood at a critical inflection point in 2024, with mounting evidence that political polarization threatens to undermine decades of progress in disease prevention and healthcare access. The O'Neill Institute's analysis of the HIV response highlights a broader pattern affecting America's entire public health infrastructure: an erosion of bipartisan cooperation is creating tangible negative impacts on healthcare delivery and outcomes.
Recent developments illustrate this crisis. The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), historically celebrated as one of the most successful public health initiatives in U.S. history, received only a one-year reauthorization in March 2024 instead of its traditional five-year renewal. This shortened timeframe introduces uncertainty for partner countries and threatens program stability. Similarly, Tennessee's rejection of $8.3 million in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) HIV prevention funding exemplifies how state-level political decisions can directly impact public health services and infrastructure.
The implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), while advancing certain healthcare affordability goals, has created unintended consequences for safety-net providers. Changes to drug pricing and reimbursement structures are affecting 340B program revenues that support critical healthcare services for vulnerable populations.
These challenges emerge against a backdrop of chronic underfunding, with the Prevention and Public Health Fund losing $12.95 billion between FY 2013-2029. This combination of political polarization and resource constraints threatens to create long-lasting negative impacts on healthcare access and population health outcomes, demanding a renewed commitment to depoliticizing essential public health infrastructure and services.
An Erosion of Bipartisan Support
The deterioration of bipartisan cooperation in public health policy represents a significant shift from historical norms that prioritized health outcomes over political ideology. PEPFAR exemplifies this change. Created under President George W. Bush's administration in 2003, PEPFAR has saved over 25 million lives and currently provides HIV prevention and treatment services to millions across 55 countries. Despite this documented success, the program's 2024 reauthorization became entangled in partisan debates over abortion rights.
"I'm disappointed," Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) stated. "Honestly, I was looking forward to marking up a five-year reauthorization, and now I'm in this abortion debate." McCaul added that "a lot of the Freedom Caucus guys would not want to give aid to Africa." The inclusion of abortion rights in the reauthorization debate reflects ongoing polarization within Congress, which has hindered the passage of traditionally bipartisan public health initiatives. This opposition led to an unprecedented short-term reauthorization through March 2025, creating instability for partner countries and threatening program sustainability.
At the state level, Tennessee's decision to reject $8.3 million in CDC HIV prevention funding reflects similar political calculations overshadowing public health considerations. The state's choice to forgo federal support impacts disease surveillance, testing services, and prevention programs that serve people living with HIV and those at risk of acquiring HIV. This rejection of federal funding occurred despite Tennessee ranking 7th among U.S. states for new HIV diagnoses in 2022.
Such decisions mark a stark departure from historical bipartisan support for public health initiatives. Previous health emergencies, from polio to the early HIV epidemic, generated collaborative responses across party lines. The Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program, established in 1990, exemplified this approach, receiving consistent bipartisan support for reauthorization until 2009, its last reauthorization.
The shift away from bipartisan cooperation extends beyond specific programs to affect broader global health initiatives. PEPFAR's instability impacts America's global health leadership position and threatens the progress made in HIV prevention and treatment worldwide. The program's uncertain future affects procurement planning, workforce retention, and long-term strategy development in partner countries, potentially reversing decades of progress in global health security.
Funding Crisis and Infrastructure Impacts
The public health funding landscape reveals a pattern of chronic underinvestment that threatens core infrastructure capabilities. The Prevention and Public Health Fund (PPHF), established under Section 4002 of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA) to provide sustained investment in prevention and public health programs, has lost $12.95 billion between FY 2013-2029 through repeated cuts and diversions. These reductions represent approximately one-third of the fund's originally allocated $33 billion, significantly limiting its ability to support essential public health services.
The CDC faces mounting infrastructure challenges due to stagnant funding. While COVID-19 response funds provided temporary relief, these emergency appropriations have been largely obligated or rescinded. The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 rescinded approximately $13.2 billion in emergency response funding from public health agencies, including the CDC, creating a significant funding cliff. Programs facing severe reductions include the Advanced Molecular Detection program, which will revert to its annual base appropriation of $40 million from a one-time supplemental of $1.7 billion, severely limiting disease surveillance capabilities.
State-level impacts manifest in critical staffing shortages and outdated systems. Public health experts estimate that state and local health departments need to increase their workforce by nearly 80%, requiring an additional 26,000 full-time positions at the state level and 54,000 at the local level. The National Wastewater Surveillance System, crucial for early detection of disease outbreaks, faces reduction from $500 million in supplemental funding to a proposed $20 million in FY 2025, threatening its operational viability.
These funding constraints create cascading effects across the public health system. The Public Health Infrastructure Grant program, which has awarded $4.35 billion to strengthen foundational capabilities across 107 state, territorial, and local health departments, expires in FY 2027 without a clear sustainability plan. Similarly, the Bridge Access Program, ensuring COVID-19 vaccine access for 25-30 million adults without health insurance, ended in August 2024, leaving millions without access to updated vaccines. These funding cuts have significantly curtailed prevention services, limiting the CDC's ability to maintain disease surveillance systems and provide timely interventions.
Healthcare Access and Safety Net Impacts
The implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has created unintended consequences for safety-net providers, particularly through its impact on the 340B Drug Pricing Program. Research examining 340B-eligible hospitals reveals concerning trends in charity care provision, with only 9 out of 38 hospitals (23.7%) reporting increases in charity care as a percentage of annual revenues after gaining 340B eligibility. This decline in charity care occurs despite significant revenue increases from 340B participation, raising questions about program effectiveness in expanding healthcare access for vulnerable populations.
Data indicates that hospital participation in the 340B program correlates with substantial revenue growth but diminishing charity care services. The average decrease in charity care provision as a percentage of annual revenues was 14.79% across examined hospitals. This trend is particularly concerning in states with high poverty rates. For example, three West Virginia hospitals—Cabell-Huntington Hospital, Pleasant Valley Hospitals, and Charleston Area Medical Center—reported some of the largest decreases in charity care despite serving a state where 28.1% of people earn less than 150% of the Federal Poverty Level.
Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) face unique challenges under these changing dynamics. Unlike hospitals, FQHCs must reinvest every 340B dollar earned into patient care or operations to maximize access. However, the IRA's implementation of Medicare drug price negotiations and insulin cost caps affects the rebate calculations that support these reinvestments, potentially reducing available resources for patient care.
Medication access challenges extend beyond 340B implications. Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) have responded to IRA provisions by adjusting formularies, sometimes excluding medications that previously generated significant rebates. This particularly impacts insulin coverage, where certain products have been dropped from formularies despite the IRA's intent to improve insulin affordability. These decisions create new barriers to medication access for people who rely on safety-net providers for healthcare services.
Public Health Consequences
The convergence of political polarization and funding constraints creates measurable negative impacts on disease prevention efforts, weakening the capacity of public health systems to effectively address emerging and ongoing health threats. Data from the CDC shows that despite a 12% decrease in new HIV diagnoses over the past five years, driven largely by a 30% reduction among young people, progress in reducing new infections has stalled. The lack of sufficient funding, compounded by political challenges, has limited the capacity to expand prevention services, enhance outreach, and maintain necessary treatment programs. The 31,800 new HIV diagnoses reported in 2022 highlight how flat funding and political barriers have hindered further advances. These barriers prevent scaling up successful prevention strategies, limit access to innovative treatments, and constrain efforts to address disparities in vulnerable communities. Notably, significant disparities persist, particularly among gay men across all racial and ethnic groups, transgender women, Black people, and Latino people. These populations continue to face systemic barriers to healthcare access, stigma, and a lack of targeted resources, all of which contribute to ongoing inequities in health outcomes.
Vaccine hesitancy, intensified by political division, threatens population health outcomes. The CDC reports that routine vaccination rates for kindergarten-age children have not returned to pre-pandemic levels, while exemption claims have increased. Nearly three-quarters of states failed to meet the federal target vaccination rate of 95% for measles, mumps, and rubella during the 2022-23 school year, increasing outbreak risks.
Health disparities are exacerbated when political decisions override public health considerations. Tennessee's rejection of CDC funding exemplifies how political choices can disproportionately impact communities already experiencing health inequities by reducing access to essential prevention and treatment services. Such decisions particularly affect regions where HIV rates among transgender women increased by 25%, and Latino gay men now account for 39% of all HIV diagnoses among men who have sex with men.
Community health center sustainability faces mounting challenges as funding mechanisms become increasingly unstable. The expiration of COVID-19 emergency funding, combined with uncertain 340B revenues and growing workforce shortages, threatens these essential safety-net providers. Public health experts estimate an 80% workforce gap in state and local health departments, hampering their ability to deliver essential services and respond to emerging health threats.
Uncertain Future Under New Administration
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the future of the nation's public health programs remains uncertain. The president-elect’s stance on health policy has historically emphasized deregulation, work requirements, and reductions in safety net programs, and early indications suggest a continuation of these priorities.
The new administration is poised to bring changes that could scale back Medicaid, reduce the Affordable Care Act’s consumer protections, and restrict reproductive health access—all of which have the potential to exacerbate existing health inequities and widen the gap in healthcare access for marginalized populations. Furthermore, the inclusion of vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. among Trump’s advisors could undermine public confidence in vaccination campaigns and other science-backed public health interventions.
Although Trump has not explicitly targeted programs like PEPFAR, the Ryan White Program, or other core public health initiatives, the broader agenda of cutting federal funding and shifting health policy decisions to the state level raises significant concerns. These shifts could ultimately weaken the country’s safety net programs, leading to an increase in uninsured rates and preventable health disparities.
The reemergence of a more partisan approach to healthcare policy, especially one with a focus on cost-cutting and minimal regulatory oversight, risks destabilizing public health progress made over the last several decades. Public health stakeholders—ranging from healthcare providers to patient advocates—will need to prepare for a period of heightened uncertainty and potentially significant changes to the public health landscape.
The coming months will likely determine how public health priorities and programs evolve in this new political era. Advocacy groups, healthcare professionals, and policymakers must remain vigilant and ready to respond as the Trump administration shapes its healthcare policy agenda, one that could either sustain or significantly alter the course of public health in the United States. Such shifts threaten to undermine the nation’s public health stability, with repercussions for healthcare costs, access, and the ability to prevent and control emerging health threats.